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Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets: How They Work

7 min read 1,234 views v1Updated 2026-06-01

Prediction Markets

CoinExchange.Cash hosts a non-custodial prediction market where users can trade on the outcomes of real-world events.

How It Works

  • Markets are created around binary questions (e.g., "Will BTC exceed $100K by December 2026?")
  • Users buy shares — YES shares pay out if the event happens, NO shares if it does not
  • Prices reflect probability — if YES shares trade at $0.70, the market estimates a 70% chance
  • Resolution — when the event outcome is known, winning shares pay $1.00

    • Pricing Model

    CoinExchange.Cash uses a pool-based pricing model where the price of YES/NO shares is determined by the ratio of funds in each outcome pool. As more users buy YES shares, the price increases.

    Market Categories

  • Crypto — price targets, protocol launches, ETF approvals
  • Politics — election outcomes, policy decisions
  • Sports — game outcomes, tournament winners
  • Economics — interest rates, GDP, inflation data
  • Science & Technology — product launches, discoveries
  • Culture — award shows, viral events

    • Risk Warning

    Prediction markets involve risk. You can lose your entire position if the outcome goes against you. Only trade with funds you can afford to lose.

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    Creating Your Own Prediction MarketBuying & Selling Prediction SharesLeaderboards, Badges & Gamification
    Back to Help Center
    Prediction Markets Overview — CoinExchange.Cash Help